Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Game Changer


"Changing the game" is tough. Some of you will have the chance to attempt the equivalent at some point in your careers. Simulating this type of experience via Billy Beane's story is a chance to reflect on the blend of "art" and "science" required to solve the intractable challenge's you may come up against.

Use internet research and class discussion to answer the following questions.

1) What was the “Moneyball”approach that Billy Beane and Peter Brandt applied to the Oakland Athletics 2002 season? Was it an “art” or a “science”? What single statistic did they boil their value consideration down to? (In class research/discussion)
They wanted to get the best values for players. It was a combination of Billy Beane's art of negotiation and Peter Brandt' science of statistics. They boiled their value consideration down to On Base Percentage.

2) What is the equation used to calculate OBP? (In class research/discussion)
OBP=(Hits+Bases on Walks+Hit by Pitch)/(At Bats+Bases on Walks+Hit by Pitch+Sacrifice Flies)

3) What is design? (In class research/discussion)
A plan or drawing produced to show the look and functions or workings of an object before it is built or made.

4) Describe 3 situations where movie characters (intentionally or not) applied a step from the PLTW 12 Step Design Process. Explain both the (a) situation as well as (b) how the step is relevant:
1 - Beane asked his board of scouts what the problem was that they were trying to fix and they couldn't answer it correctly.

2 - Beane hired an assistant (Peter Brandt) that had a solution to his problem.

3 - Beane applied the Moneyball system to get his team. After he created it, he tested and evaluated his team and found that he could refine it by cutting Jeremy Giambi for his careless personality.

5) What is “Leadership”? List the three aspects of leadership that we come up with in class. (In class research/discussion)
1 - Leading by example
2 - Making decisions under pressure and without other input
3 - Coordinating a group
6) Describe 3 circumstances from the story where a character exercised effective leadership:
1 - David Justice provided leadership by being the oldest and most experienced player.
2 - Billy Beane shows leadership to Peter Brandt by showing him what it takes to be the manager of a team.
3 - Billy Beane showed leadership when he went into the locker room and disciplined his players after the loss when they were all partying.

7) According to the movie, what was the A’s record at the start of their winning streak? 68:51

8) What does this ratio simplify to (roughly)? 1.33: 1

9) How long was the A’s record setting winning streak? 20 games won.

10) Given the A’s win/loss ratio at the start of the streak (listed two questions above), what are the odds of winning 20 games in a row? Run the numbers. (In class research/discussion)
The odds of winning 20 games in a row are roughly 1 in 447 years by complete chance.

11) Based on your calculation, do you think the A’s got lucky or was there something to the Moneyball approach?
I think the A's got lucky with the amount of money they spent and the quality of players on the team.

12) Did Billy Beane strictly apply the “science” of Moneyball to his management approach? Was there an “art” to his efforts as well? Describe a circumstance where he broke from the Moneyball approach to make a positive change for the team.
Billy Beane also used an art to his efforts through his negotiations and team management. By cutting Jeremy Giambi (a very good moneyball pick), he made a positive change for the team by eliminating his careless attitude.

Bonus Question (look into this if you’ve finished ahead of the class):
Money Ball was originally a book. What author wrote the book? What other books has this author written? Is there a theme to his writing?
Michael Lewis wrote "Money Ball". He has also written "Liar's Poker", "The New New Thing", and "The Blind Side: Evolution of a Game". The theme to his writing seems to be sports books about changes in games.

It's "Oscar Season", will Moneyball win the Oscar for any of the categories it's up for?
No.

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